Wildfire Threats in Western Washington
This topic is one that I’ve written about many times, to include having an Op-ed in the Seattle Times, Western Washington not immune from wildfire risk
Now here is a paper on the topic for my old emergency management territory. You can find the entire paper by searching for the title and it will appear in LinkedIn.
Revisit of the Red Zone Modeling in King County, 2003
Emergency Management Consultant at Encore Consulting LLC
August 1, 2023
This paper provides is a cookbook style recipe for developing an urban wildfire intermix risk model for King County. The Colorado Red Zone tool has been adapted to King County, to identify the risk in King County communities and to develop a tool that is useful for sensitive area planning (hazard and vulnerability mitigation, as well as, fire preplanning).
Wildland fires pose a serious threat to human life and property, especially when homes are built in fire-prone ecosystems. Washington and other western states have an increasing incidence of intermix fire issues due to the growth of vulnerable communities being built in fire “intermix” areas. Intermix areas are the areas of natural fuel coverage that blends with human infrastructure or settlements.
This model has a potential risk rating total of 15 points. These are given for ignition possibility, urban density, and fuel (Type and condition). The range in King County was found to be from 2.25 – 10.25, but much of the eastside was found to be between 7 and 9 and there is reason to believe that parts of the county may rate as high as an 11. The mean is 5.8 with a standard deviation of 1.97.
King County faces both problems of interface and urban intermix issues. The vegetation in the county grows thickly from heavy rains. The density of the fuel has been accelerated by years of aggressive fire fighting that has caused an unnatural and unhealthy buildup of fuels. This is an explosive combination that nationally destroys homes annually. California, the Rocky Mountain States, and eastern Washington have all experienced wildfire/urban intermix disasters in the last decade.
Typically, western Washington is thought to be fire resistant. It is a mistake to think that the forests of King County will not burn or that an investment in mitigation and preparedness is beyond the time horizon to capture benefit. Indeed, long-term fire fighting policy has intensified the hazard, and current growth policies will allow for rapidly increasing vulnerability. The terrain and fuel loads are good reasons to believe that the conditions for a project fire in the urban intermix area are high.
Typically, western Washington has a low wildfire hazards rating due to fuel moisture and lack of lightning. While it is doubtful that early season fires will become prevalent as they are in many of the western states, by the late season the fuels are typically very dry. The abundance of fuel on the ground will allow a fire to grow rapidly, so any fire that does start can rapidly get out of hand. The probable interface fire disaster in western Washington would coincide with three things: 1) an extended period of drought, 2) an unusually hot summer, and 3) an active fire season in the western states. The latter is not only an indicator but will mean that our wildfire crews will be out of position.
In the normative state, fire is a part of the ecology of the forest. It generates vitality in the forest. The vast majority of fires will not burn hot enough to destroy trees. The fire eliminates the excess fuel load, creates space for tree propagation, and then heat from the wildfire opens the cones. This is the case with several species.
Map of King County Wildfire Urban Intermix Risk
